Extraordinary criminal activities like terrorism do not happen spontaneously. They require an elaborate level of preparation to increase their level of success. Such activities are often inhibited by the distance between the terrorists planning the attack and their meeting locations, where they procure their intended weapon(s), and the place or people being targeted.
For al-Qaida to conduct as large-scale sarin gas attack in the United States, the terrorist organization would have to undertake all these activities in preparation. Based on the fragmented intelligence intercepted from the al-Qaida, the following are six pre-operational intelligence collection indicators that will be useful for the FBI intelligence team in stopping an attack: identity theft (concealment of identity), suspicious movement, suspicious facilities, material acquisition, target selection and religious radicalization.
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Terrorists have strong psychological motivations for carrying out attacks. Contemporary terror groups such as those found in Europe usually carry out their attacks with the intention of making the public witness, rather than inflict mass casualties. However, according to the Center of Counterproliferation Research new groups that are underpinned by Islamic fundamentalism and religious extremism have emerged, and are often motivated by three factors: “…the deliberate quest to acquire or develop CBRN weapons, a willingness to accept martyrdom, and a perception that the only “audience” of worth is that of a deity.” This is consistent with the intercepted intelligence where martyrdom is discussed, indicating that the five “brothers” undertaking the attack will be martyred. Further, it is suggested that the group’s primary weapon is sarin gas. This is also in line with the belief that al-Qaeda has been on a long-term pursuit of developing weapons of mass destruction to mount mass casualty attacks. Such radicalized individuals who express a willingness to participate in violence and visit websites and online forums for jihadist ideologies should be reported.
The intercepted intelligence alludes to the acquisition of relevant materials. These include 100 liters of sarin, five passports, horn, flashing lights and an ambulance. This forms part of the capacity building and planning phase of the terrorist activity chain. The FBI should, therefore, watch for patterns involving grand theft auto, purchase of lab and personal protective equipment, and precursor chemicals. The concealment of identity is also a sure pointer of the inclination to commit nefarious activities. According to the intelligence, the five Afghan “brothers” plan to use Lebanese passports with Christian names. To successfully plan and execute a terrorism plot, it is fundamental for terrorists to obscure their identities. This is important because research shows that personal background information is crucial in making an accurate threat assessment.
One pre-event indicator of the final preparation of a major terror attack is the major movement of suspicious persons. This is apparent in the leaked intelligence that shows the possible travel path of the terrorists from Afghanistan to Brooklyn with several stops along the way. This is likely aimed at throwing security off their trail. Another indicator is a suspicious facility likely to be set up in Brooklyn and likely to be used as a base of operation for conducting surveillance and targeting. Surveillance is usually undertaken to determine the most vulnerable place to attack. The FBI should, therefore, work with the local law enforcement in New York to increase their community policing efforts to identify any suspicious activities and new people.
