Foreign terrorism has been one of the biggest concerns of the American public over the last decade and more. While the war in Afghanistan and other wars have helped to quell some of the concern over the threat of terrorism, it remains something that the public must be concerned with. With that in mind, some wonder which group, if any, is most likely to attack the United States next. Many groups could potentially launch an attack, but Al Qaeda is still the most likely group to pull off such an attack. Even though many of the people in charge of the organization have been arrested or killed over the last few years, Al Qaeda remains a factor, and its remaining members are highly motivated against the United States. It seems highly unlikely that terrorist groups will use something like an airplane in the future, so bombs seem to be the most logical choice. In order to stop such an attack, the United States might institute better security at high-priority targets, including stadiums, where terrorists are likely to invest more of their time and effort where large numbers of civilians can be eliminated in one strike.
The two wars – Afghanistan and Iraq – have done significant damage to the infrastructure of Al Qaeda. Most principally, the organization has lost most of the significant members of its brain trust. Osama Bin Laden was obviously killed, and a number of other leaders have been eliminated either with drone strikes or with other military operations. What this means, then, is that the organization has very little structure at this point, and this might make it difficult for Al Qaeda to organize an attack. The truth about the organization, though, is that it has changed but has not lost its effect. No longer is the organization highly structured from the top. Rather, the group is now loosely organized, and there are many different cells. Researchers and professionals within the foreign policy field differ on whether these cells operate together or on their own, but there is general agreement that Al Qaeda is still capable of pulling off at least some kind of attack.
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There are many reasons why they stand to be the next group to attack the United States. One of the most significant reasons has to do with motivation. Al Qaeda is supremely motivated to attack the United States because of the events that have happened over the last ten years. When the group first attacked the United States on September 11th, America responded with swift attacks. Things have devolved even more, though. Over the last few years, American forces have taken out many of the major power players for Al Qaeda, and this has produced a new generation of terrorist leaders who have incentive to attack the United States (Bergen, 2011). Likewise, there is opportunity. The infrastructure by which Al Qaeda is funded is still very powerful, as money is often funneled into the organization through countries like Yemen and Saudi Arabia (Blanchard, 2010). This makes the organization very difficult to stop, as laws abroad make it almost impossible for the United States to stop the flow of money from international financiers to Al Qaeda (Farrall, 2011). Likewise, there are the same old motivations that have powered this group for so long. These things have not abated, making Al Qaeda a highly motivated gang.
It is likely that Al Qaeda would not try to strike the United States with the same sort of attack that they brought in 2001. That was a specially coordinated attack that required the planning of the central leadership team. Since that team has been killed, for the most part, the attack will mostly likely take the form of what most would consider to be a “traditional” terrorist attack. Bombings have long been the choice for organizations like this, and they love to hit high-value targets where lots of civilian Americans are living. This may motivate the group to strike with a bombing at an American stadium, where a structure can be brought down and people can be killed. This would also follow the organization’s normal operating philosophy of trying to strike at the things that Americans value the most. Sports are chief among those things that Americans take the most pride in.
In order to stop such an attack, the United States would have a few different options. Its heightened immigration and customs procedures are important for keeping would-be assailants out of the country in the first place. Those things must continue, but assuming that it is possible for assailants to get into the country, the next option would be to provide more security at the nation’s biggest sporting events. While things like the Super Bowl bring tremendous security, the average football game on a Saturday or Sunday has very little notable security. It would be easy for the United States to respond to this sort of threat, creating barriers around stadiums in order to make it difficult for would-be assailants to bring their weapons into those stadiums. As it currently stands, many stadiums allow individuals to get very close to the actual structure without having to go through any sort of security check. This is something that must change if the country is to prevent this sort of attack in the future.
- Bergen, P. L. (2011). The longest war: The enduring conflict between America and Al- Qaeda. Simon and Schuster.
- Blanchard, C. M. (2010). Al Qaeda: statements and evolving ideology. DIANE Publishing.
- Farrall, L. (2011). How Al Qaeda Works-What the Organization’s Subsidiaries Say about Its Strength. Foreign Aff., 90, 128.
