Abstract
The events which were depicted on the movie titled: World War Z demonstrated the potential occurrences in the event of a pandemic. Pandemics are outbreaks of disease which cause mortality among the population. The present threat which is the H5N1 virus will be reviewed. The research which has been conducted by Guan et al. (2004), Mondo (2005), Murray et al. (2007) and Sadique et al., 2007) will be explored. The outcomes of the 1918- 1920 influenza pandemic and the implications of a pandemic in the present will be reviewed.
World War Z
Introduction
This research paper will review the present pandemic hazards. The potential of the avian bird flu, which is acknowledged as the H5N1 influenza will be explored. The perspectives of Guan et al. (2004), Mondo (2005), Murray et al. (2007) and Sadique et al. (2007) will be reviewed. Avian flu strains are volatile and difficult to predict. Consequently, it is very difficult to forecast the conditions of the next pandemic. This research will review the present pandemic threats which have been recognized.
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It is extremely infrequent that the H5N1 flu manifests itself in the human population. There have been no cases which have been documented in the United States. The majority of cases which have been documented have been attributed to communication with surfaces which have been infected by poultry (Guan et al., 2004).
The signs of the H5N1 influenza virus in human beings consist of severe respiratory tract diseases, pneumonic manifestations, ocular infections, muscular pains, scratchy throat cough and feverish symptoms. In order to deter the contamination by the H5N1 influenza, it is highly recommended to exercise extreme care when travelling to areas where the H5N1 virus is manifest. Contact with infected avian species should be avoided. There have been over five hundred instances of human infection globally during the past decade. Outbreaks of avian flu have originated in Europe, the Pacific Africa, and Asia (Guan et al., 2004; Mondo et al., 2005, Murray et al., 2007; Sadique et al., 2007).
Notwithstanding that it is a rare strain of influenza; the H5N1 influenza strain has the potential of becoming a pandemic. This can be attributed to the statistic that over sixty percent mortality. It has been assessed that a flu pandemic would result in an immediate mortality of 2 million to seven million globally. Consequent to the high index of global travel, the viral strain would have the potential of rapid and intense communication. There would be extensive manifestations of infections and the indexes of infection would more than likely be more elevated than the conventional seasonal influenza strain. It has been evaluated that there would be a significant requisite for health care services.
Consequently, the scarce nations which have the health care resources in order to address the numbers of sick and the mortality indexes would be heavily utilized (Guan et al., 2004; Mondo et al., 2005, Murray et al., 2007; Sadique et al., 2007).
A pandemic which has a sever aspect would have the outcome of elevated indexes of illness. As a result, many individuals would require quarantine. This aspect of quarantine would influence the national and global economies and result in changes to the daily lifestyles of millions. The activities of daily living would become much more difficult when individuals who provide the required infrastructure service (communication, transport, medical care, sanitation services) would not be able to perform their daily responsibilities (Guan et al., 2004; Mondo et al., 2005, Murray et al., 2007; Sadique et al., 2007).
In a pandemic situation, essential services may be affected. Research has demonstrated that during a pandemic outbreak, the services which have been normally available as part of society’s system of infrastructure has not been accessible. These vital services may incorporate the services which are provided by health care personnel, financial establishments, food service establishments, government administrative offices, information and communication technology related services and postal communication services. The supermarkets may be compelled to remain closed or they may distribute limited supplies.
Essential transport services may not be accessible. Public events such as concerts and religious gatherings may be suspended. The public’s capacity of traveling by automobile in the event of gasoline shortages and rationing may be restricted. The financial services sector would be impacted and the ability of automated teller machines to dispense currency may be restricted (Guan et al., 2004; Mondo et al., 2005, Murray et al., 2007; Sadique et al., 2007).
Research has proven that during pandemic situations there is extreme rationing of food and water supplies. . This could result in shortages and panic in the general population. It may be impossible to work at secular activities in the outbreak of a pandemic situation. Organizations may have to suspend services. The educational system would be influenced. The private and the public education system from the grades of K- 12 and the university systems may be suspended in order to diminish the potential of contagion. The restrictions on the activities of the educational system would occur on an unadvised notice (Guan et al., 2004; Mondo et al., 2005, Murray et al., 2007; Sadique et al., 2007).
In the span of the past three centuries there have been over ten pandemic which spread globally. The most pronounced pandemic situation occurred in 1981 and had a mortality of over 100 million people. The present population is three times the amount which was assessed in 1918- 1920. A pandemic of the proportions of the 1918- 1920 would have the potential of inflicting elevated indexes of mortality (Guan et al., 2004; Mondo et al., 2005, Murray et al., 2007; Sadique et al., 2007).
There have been a number of factors and events which have substantially elevated the preoccupation that a pandemic may be unavoidable. The pandemic may be attributed to the H5n1 flu strain. It is uncertain whether the next pandemic event would be equal to the pandemic which occurred in 1918- 1920 or if it would be of a mild characteristic. The H5N1 viral strain is capable of mutating into a completely unknown strain which would result in contagion between humans. The entire global population would be placed at risk by the mutation of the H5N1 virus (Guan et al., 2004; Mondo et al., 2005, Murray et al., 2007; Sadique et al., 2007).
Conclusion
Can the eminent pandemic disaster be avoided? This is an important point in technological and communication history. The time is passing quickly. In order to avoid the next pandemic situation, today’s leaders must act purposely and decisively. The concerns of economic well being and the potential damage must be addressed before they occur. In the absence of proper planning, a pandemic could result in scenes which were demonstrated by the recent cinematic production World War Z. Is the verdict preparation or procrastination? Only time will tell.
- Guan , Y., Poon, l. L. M. , Cheung, C. Y., Ellis, T. M. , Lim, W. , Lipator, A.S., & Peiris, J. S. M. (2004). H5N1 influenza: a protein pandemic threat. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 101(21): 8156- 8 8161.
- Mondo, A. S. (2005). The Threat of an Avian Influenza Pandemic. National Training Center.
- Murray, C. J., Lopez, A. D., Chin, B., Feehan, D. & Hill, K. (2007). Estimation of potential global pandemic on the basis of vital registry data for the 1918- 1920 pandemic: A quantitative analysis. The Lancet, 368(9554): 2211- 2218.
- Sadique, M. Z., Edmunds, W. J. Smith, R. D. Meerding, W. J. De Znort, O. Brug, J. & Beutels , P. (2007). Precautionary behavior in response to perceived threat of pandemic influenza. Energy Infectious Disease, 13(9): 1307.
