Today, wind power is one of the most perspective energy sources. Wind power industry is in the process of rapid globalization and consolidation. The use of wind turbines becomes critical against the background of climatic issues since it is a good alternative to burning fossil fuels. The development of wind power industry is on the way, and the importance of wind power production is continuously increasing since the wind is an inexhaustible resource of clean energy.
The wind is a movement of the air over the surface of the Earth due to the difference in atmospheric pressure. One of the main characteristics of the wind is its speed. The wind speed is expressed in meters or knots per hour. The energy yield strongly depends on variation of wind speed. The higher wind speed ensures better power output. Thus, it is natural that this index affects economic output and project investments. It can be said that wind speed is a key determinant of the success of wind power industry. Just insignificant change in wind speed has a great effect on energy output.
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"Why is Wind Speed Characteristics and Forecasting Important?".
Wind speed is not constant and varies from year to year, season to season, and day to day. It also depends on the height above the ground. Considering the fact that there is a cubic relationships between wind power and wind speed, the 15 mph wind speed contains approximately 100 percent more energy than 12 mph wind speed. In other words, wind speed that is 25% greater will have 100% more energy, and wind speed that is 20% lower will provide only 50% of energy. Landscape characteristics are crucial for wind speed as they may change wind direction and, therefore, reduce the wind speed. Therefore, the selection of the site for installation of wind facilities is crucial. Sites with higher mean wind speed will produce more power, comparing to those with lower mean wind speed.
Given the above, wind speed forecasting is of the great importance. Forecast data are used by wind power producers in planning of the operation of wind power facilities. Moment balance between electricity consumption and generation should be maintained. Otherwise, fluctuations in power quality and supply may occur. Thus, fluctuation of wind generation is significant aspect of power production process. However, wind speed forecast is not an easy thing as it depends of various determinants to be considered. There is obvious connection between wind power generation and whether conditions. Weather variables are main aspects of wind energy production. Numerical weather prediction model is used for forecasting weather conditions. This model considers various parameters, including humidity, temperature, pressure and other variable that effect weather conditions and, therefore, wind parameters.
Since wind speed fluctuation depends on various factors, different time scales are used for its prediction and measurement. Wind power output is subject to seasonal variations, i.e. it may be higher in winter in Northern Europe due to low atmospheric pressure or may be higher in summer in Mediterranean areas thanks to summer breezes. Wind speed may also change within a day due to temperature changes. The choice of forecasting scale depends on certain needs. Wind power facilities used within households may require short-term scale while large wind power generating facilities, consisting of many turbines, require large-scale forecast, including seasons, months and years. There are different methods used in prediction of wind generation. The simplest one is based on climatology and production values of the previous periods. Power speed forecast inevitably includes metrological indexes, such as temperature and pressure differentials.
Wind speed is one of the most crucial characteristics of wind energy production. However, wind speed is not constant parameter and requires comprehensive prediction. Wind speed forecast is of the great importance for wind power industry since its data allow power producers to plan continuous energy production.
